Simmons – Hirsch Interview on Peak Oil Coming NOW
Posted: December 15th, 2008 by: h2
Amazing stuff, if you don’t listen to much, please check out this very long interview with two of the most serious individuals involved in oil field analysis, peak oil, etc. When two guys like this get together, they aren’t doing it to have fun or
Our fun times are coming to an end very soon, if these guys are as right as they have consistently been. One key point is new data released by a newly reorganized IEA (International Energy Agency)
Please give the interview a listen (direct stream)
The following are some random quotes from the interview:
The biggest story.. is supply destruction, but that’s not getting the same coverage as the current demand destruction…
(the IEA) is saying we are in TERRIBLY serious trouble… At some point somebody needs to stand up and say we have a fire in the theater.
Oil has been on a production plateau since about 2005
The game is over…
We are having trouble explaining this to people who do not understand…
We are already on the downhill slide…
The oil industry is now panicked (because of the current economic collapse).. they are laying down rigs.. we’ve already laid down about 20% of North American’s rigs, within six months we’ll be 30% down
I think we have a week or two before we shot ourselves in the kneecap
We’re heading for a train wreck.. we’re sliding downhill without any brakes.
The only fix is to drop our current oil consumption levels.. there are no quick fixes.
The time to act is now.. and need to act is urgent
(the prevailing public feeling that) renewables will solve all of our problems and that is just PLAIN WRONG
This is a no-holds barred interview, and the news is all bad. They discuss new IEA (International Energy Agency) research and management which are showing that all previous assumptions were grotesquely optimistic.
We’re talking about a depleting resource.. and not being far from the point where world oil production goes into permanent decline
There are other people (oil) companies, that have entrenched interests who don’t want to discuss this.
People.. are not connecting… you can’t keep pulling oil out of the ground at the rate you did in the past… along with the fact you are dealing with a finite resource.
Today 98% of the drilling being done is on just in time wells (as opposed to long term development projects)
We’ve been on a plateau of oil production since 2005.. if you take a look at what’s happening now… the impact of (current oil demand destruction) long term it’s largely miniscule
Between the end of 1997 to 2007 prices went up 14-15 times.. global petroleum use grew by 12.6 million barrels per day, but production only grew 5.5 million barrels per day.
Cantarell.. the second largest producing oil field discovered in the world (in Mexico) is now declining at a rate of 2 1/2 percent PER MONTH
….
Their (Mexico/Pemex’s) exportability will be over by 2009.Exxon does not want to be the organization that says we are in very deep trouble…
Smaller (oil) fields, which is what we are now finding, decline faster than big ones… we can’t run fast enough to keep up
The decline rates are increasing over time.. in 8 years we’ll need 8 new Saudi Arabias
(Re Brazil’s Santos basin:) We shouldn’t even call those deep water or ultra-deep water.. basically they are basically almost going to the center of the earth.. it will take us 2 to 4 DECADES to discover what we really have their… but what we’re kind of worried about is that we are getting down to temperatures and pressures we have never been encountered in the history of the world before.. we are going to get very close to piercing the crust, and maybe into the magma… you can’t believe how complicated this is.
Those Brazilian oil fields, if you don’t follow this stuff, are considered one of the current best hopes we have. So in other words, Simmons etc are right, time to stop.