A Drop of Rain

This is from the July Issue of the ASPO newsletter, Issue 91.

One of the more interesting articles in it was a decent timeline for what’s happened to us as a species, I’m quoting the whole section since they don’t mind reproduction of the material.

By odd coincidence, Nate Hagens from the theoildrum.com also just published a new article on human development and oil addiction, which fits in quite well with the following ASPO article, being largely historical/biologically oriented too.

1061. Peak Oil : A Turning Point for Mankind

The term Peak Oil now enters the dictionary as the importance of the issue finally hits the mainstream. The International Energy Agency, which is the OECD watchdog, has long been aware of it having issued a warning in 1998 that demand would outpace supply by 2010 save for the entry of a mysterious element, termed Unidentified Unconventional, which was evidently a coded term for shortage. But recent statements made to the Press suggest that it is finally going to come clean in the 2008 issue of the World Energy Outlook to be published in November, and explain the true position in no uncertain terms.

Given the central role of oil and gas in the modern economy, the peak of production is likely to be a turning point for mankind of almost unparalleled magnitude. It prompts consideration of the historical evolution of societies as a basis for evaluating what the reactions might be.

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I didn’t want to lose this, here’s the transcript of his recent testimony

Same old stuff, but it’s getting more intense by the week.

And Senators, ladies and gentlemen, simply stated, our main energy problem begins and ends with imported oil. Seventy percent of the oil we use is imported. With current oil prices, we are getting close to exporting $700 billion a year overseas because of our addiction to imported oil. That’s nearly four times the cost of the Iraqi war. We purchase it from a few friends and a lot of enemies. We are paying for the war against ourselves and we have got to stop it, some way, somehow.

And the price of oil will go up further. Over the next 10 years, you’re looking at exporting $10 trillion out of this country. It will be the greatest transfer of wealth from one country to other parts of the world in the history of mankind. It is a clear and growing threat to our national security, and our national economy. It has to be stopped. We are on the verge of losing our Super Power status. It’s time to quit the blame game, and look for solutions and leadership to solve the problem.

Here’s some thoughts from people interviewed about high fuel costs in Europe from a recent article in The International Herald Tribune

“This concerns everyone who drives,” Schneberger said. “And that makes a lot of angry people.”
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“Crude was our life and we didn’t know that everything depended on it,” said María José Aragón, a 56-year-old government worker in Madrid. “Groceries have gone up 20 to 30 percent. A loaf of bread that used to cost 30 cents now costs 55 cents.”
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“The prices are nightmarish,” said Arutsun Hachaturyan, the manager of a jewelry business, who said he pumps about $1,200 in gas a month into his black Range Rover. “This is Russia,” he said, while filling his tank at a Moscow gas station. “We live on oil.”
International Herald Tribune, Social pain of rising fuel costs spreads in Europe, May 29, 2008

At some point, who knows when, who knows how it will happen, governments are going to have to start understanding that our population depends on the oil that has now peaked. The adjustments will not be trivial. How will they explain this reality to them? The premise was that everything depends on cheap oil, and that premise is fast proving itself to be correct. And Europe is far better equipped to handle high fuel costs than the USA.

A very informative piece in the oil drum about how crude oil is refined, in terms of light sweet versus heavy crude, how much of each product (gas, gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, etc) they get from each type, using different refining technologies.

This should help you understand a bit better how refineries are limited in the ratios of say gasoline and diesel / heating oil (’distillates’ below) from every barrel. Keep in mind also, there is an energy cost to converting the heavier crudes which this article didn’t get into much, but the article’s comments did mention that question. Interesting stuff, well written, and informative, helps clarify the processes involved in creating our various fuels.

When a refinery purchases crude oil, the key piece of information they need to know about that crude, besides price, is what the crude oil assay looks like. There has been a lot of discussion here at various times about “light sweet”, or “heavy sour”, and how these qualifiers affect the ability of a refiner to turn these crudes into products. So, I thought it would be good to devote an essay to this subject, and discuss how different types of crude can affect a refiner’s bottom line.

Let’s compare light sweet oil to heavy sour oil by looking at a pair of assays:

Liquid Volume %	Generic Light Sweet	Generic Heavy Sour
Gas (Boiling Point to 99°F)	4.40	3.40
Straight Run (99 to 210°F)	6.50	4.10
Naphtha (210 to 380°F)	18.60	9.10
Kerosene (380 to 510°F)	13.80	9.20
Distillate (510 to 725°F)	32.40	19.30
Gas Oil (725 to 1050°F)	19.60	26.50
1050+ Residuals	4.70	28.40
Sulfur %	0.30	4.90
API	34.80	22.00

Table 1. Comparison Between Assays of Light and Heavy Crudes

Refining 201: The Assay Essay

I say, if we’re going to be addicted to, then run out of, this petroleum stuff, then let’s at least understand what the stuff is, and what it’s used for, and how it’s processed into all those fun compounds we’ve grown so overly fond of….

Another nice recent oildrum article, though ultimately unfullfilling, was Richard Heinberg’s Coal in the United States, an overview of US coal reserves. And, no matter what the long term survival of most species on this planet would prefer, we are going to end up using up as much coal as we can, no matter how badly it destroys our ecosystem. Why? Because we refuse to drop growth based economic systems feeding absurd desires and unrealistic expectations.

Even Al Jazeera is getting in on the act, in this recent feature on peak oil they did. Notice how they don’t give much credence to the ongoing denial of the Saudis that oil production is in any way problematic. Wouldn’t it be nice to see our own mainstream media stop giving credence to the nonsense that our political system is spouting in terms of oil, energy, financial problems, and so on? Dream on.

Imagine seeing something like this on American mainstream television, heh heh… some major peak oil theorists are interviewed, from the Energy Watch Group, ASPO, plus Robert Hirsch, author of the Hirsch Report (check out the pdf summary and full report), etc.

Hirsch, in case you don’t know, is the guy that Bush and company commissioned to do the research, then whose research they promptly chose to ignore when his findings didn’t fit with what the Bush group wanted to hear.

The show is cut into two parts:

Who said it’s all bad news? Globalization was always a totally false construct, built on a foundation of dirt cheap oil prices (around $10 a barrel until only 10 years or so ago), caused by a very temporary global oil glut.

So to see a story about globalization already collapsing at oil prices around 120 a barrel current really makes my day a bit more cheerful. Read on to see how rising oil prices are already impacting the US locally as well.

To summarize some other postings here, ship bunker oil, fuel oil, is from what I can gather basically Number 6 distillate, the heaviest, crappiest stuff, left over after they refine out gasoline, diesel, heating oil, and jet fuel. Read this nice overview in wikipedia if you want to learn the specifics. Check out this sample of current Los Angeles bunker fuel prices.

Noting there that all categories of bunker fuel prices are rising right along with crude oil futures, the following article now should be fairly easy to understand:

The rising price of oil is making international trade of heavy cargo prohibitively expensive, and acting as an incentive for importers to find products such as steel closer to home, new research by CIBC World Markets shows.
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If oil prices continue to rise, the soaring cost of global transport will act like a major tariff barrier and lead to a substantial slow down in international trade, they argue.

“Globalization is reversible,” they state.
High oil prices will hurt trade, report says, Globe and Mail, May 27, 2008

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The following story shows how the global diesel shortage directly affects an entire region in Africa’s domestic wheat production.

Wheat farmers in the Southern Rift Valley on Tuesday said they were unable to prepare their land for planting due to a serious shortage of diesel.

“It will not be possible for some farmers to plant wheat next month because some parts will be too dry,” said Mr Samuel Gitonga, the chairman of the Nakuru chapter of Kenya National Federation of Agricultural Producers.

Mr Gitonga said that some farmers had been harrowing their farms in readiness for planting wheat but had now suspended it due to lack of diesel. Farmers in the Rift Valley Province produce about three million bags of wheat annually but Mr Gitonga said that the target may not be achieved.
Fuel shortage threatens South Rift wheat output, 5/14/2008

As you can see, unlike the dreams of economists, the markets do not in fact adjust everything nice and neatly, it’s a fairly brutal, unforgiving game, and the sooner countries extract themselves from the industrialized agriculture system, the better off they all will be.

Well, I’d say the mainstream media’s main sources are all stumbling towards a part of the first step of realization. Seeing Kunstler featured in the Washington Post editorial pages is a pretty good sign in my opinion, although it’s a bit late, since from what I can see, we are now starting to bump our way down the back end of the global oil production peak.

The public, and especially the mainstream media, misunderstands the “peak oil” story. It’s not about running out of oil. It’s about the instabilities that will shake the complex systems of daily life as soon as the global demand for oil exceeds the global supply.
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As the world passes the all-time oil production high and watches as the price of a barrel of oil busts another record, as it did last week, these systems will run into trouble. Instability in one sector will bleed into another. Shocks to the oil markets will hurt trucking, which will slow commerce and food distribution, manufacturing and the tourist industry in a chain of cascading effects. Problems in finance will squeeze any enterprise that requires capital, including oil exploration and production, as well as government spending. These systems are all interrelated. They all face a crisis. What’s more, the stress induced by the failure of these systems will only increase the wishful thinking across our nation.

And that’s the worst part of our quandary: the American public’s narrow focus on keeping all our cars running at any cost. Even the environmental community is hung up on this. The Rocky Mountain Institute has been pushing for the development of a “Hypercar” for years — inadvertently promoting the idea that we really don’t need to change.
GRAND DELUSION
Wake Up, America. We’re Driving Toward Disaster, May 25, 2008

Kunstler took good advantage of this opportunity, and I’m glad that the Washington Post is printing this story.
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I have to admit it, in some ways the sheer technical challenge of modern oil field development fascinates me, although of course the more technology that is required to produce oil, the closer we are to the steeper parts of the decline.

Several things to note in this story, which make it a worthwhile read:

• This is a horizontal well, which means it goes down about 5k feet, then turns and is drilled horizontally using some amazing steerable drill bits, for about 35k feet.
• The oil is in a roughly 20 foot high pocket, and they managed to keep that drill in that pocket the whole way, I assume
• No mention of how much this well cost, but I assume it was a lot since Maersk keeps on repeating how ‘efficient’ the process was compared to using multiple wells.
• Most important: horizontal wells basically speed up the extraction rate for any given field. That means you are sticking a straw with many holes, often with branching limbs, each with many holes in it, then sucking out the oil super fast, which leads to super fast oil field depletion.

Maersk Oil has finished drilling the longest hole in the world with a length of 40,320 feet (12.3km) at Al Shaheen Field, offshore Qatar, beating the 20-year old record of the Russian Kola Peninsula exploratory well.

With a horizontal section of 35,770ft (10.9km) Maersk Oil’s BD-04A well also extended the company’s previously held world record for the longest horizontal well by 9,000ft (3km). The entire horizontal reservoir section was placed within a reservoir target which is only 20ft thick.
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Maersk Oil Qatar managing director, Jakob Thomasen said, “It is not our goal to break drilling records, but rather to be an efficient and prudent operator and add value to our stakeholders. We have found Maersk Oil’s horizontal well technology adds indispensable value to the Al Shaheen field development. Not only do we gather information at highly competitive costs, but with our technology we minimise the number of wells, platforms and infrastructure required for oil and gas field development.
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Maersk Oil Qatar operates the Al Shaheen Field in Block 5, some 80km off the coast and is currently executing a $6bn field development to bring the oil production from the current level of 330,000 bpd to a plateau of 525,000 bpd by end-2009.
Maersk drills longest well at Al Shaheen, Gulf Times, 21 May, 2008

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The complete, total, and virtually complete, disconnect in the oil market and commentators continues to astound and amaze. Let’s keep in mind our econ 101. When demand is greater than supply, prices rise until the higher cost has killed enough demand to allow a deal to be made.

With this in mind, let’s look at today’s Bloomberg story:

OPEC’s daily shipments of crude oil declined by 4.3 percent in the four weeks ended May 4, according to Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, excluding Angola and Ecuador, exported 22.762 million barrels a day on tankers, according to data from the London- based tanker-tracking service. That compares with 23.786 million a day in the equivalent period to April 6.

“They seem to be trending downwards, but only by a marginal amount,” LMIU analyst Jacqueline Steele said in a telephone interview.

The decline in exports preceded plans by Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, to raise output by 300,000 barrels a day in June, announced by Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi on May 16.
OPEC Shipments Dropped 4.3% Last Month, May 23 2008

Couple this with declines in the other non-OPEC major producers, Russia and Mexico, and you end up with, surprise surprise, new record crude oil prices.

OPEC’s production is year over year down about 1 million barrels per day, that is. Now you know why oil futures hit $135 yesterday, and why more clear heads are pointing to supply problems in addition to speculation and the collapsing US dollar.
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