No real confirmations yet, but judging from the recently released video, one set of researchers puts the Deep Horizon blowout rate at between 60k and 100k barrels per day.

Steven Wereley, an associate professor at Purdue University, analyzed videotape of the sea-floor gusher using a technique called particle image velocimetry.

A computer program simply tracks particles, and calculates how fast they are moving. Wereley put the BP video of the gusher into his computer. He made a few simple calculations and came up with an astonishing value for the rate of the oil spill: 70,000 barrels a day — much higher than the official estimate of 5,000 barrels a day.

The method is accurate to a degree of plus or minus 20 percent.

Given that uncertainty, the amount of material spewing from the pipe could range from 56,000 barrels to 84,000 barrels a day. It is important to note that it’s not all oil. The short video BP released starts out with a shot of methane, but at the end it seems to be mostly oil.

Another earlier estimate, based on an analysis of the slick size, puts it at about 25k barrels per day.

But the media continues to report that oil is leaking into the Gulf at 5,000 barrels per day. At SkyTruth we estimate the spill rate is closer to 1.1 million gallons (26,500 barrels) per day, based on the size of the slick on satellite images and Coast Guard maps, and thickness estimates derived from visual descriptions of the slick. That puts us at a total spill of 21 million gallons so far.

To be fair, BP says we really can’t know, but there is something to the higher estimates when you watch the recently released videos of the oil/gas blowout. And in terms of public relations spin and damage control, stating it’s a smaller number sounds better on TV.
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The The Oil Drum, as expected, is doing a great job providing up to the minute coverage and analysis from their industry professionals.

Another oil field engineer, retired, shelburn, has appeared and is adding his views (his specialty is the remotely operated submersibles that are doing the actual work on the ocean floor, 5000 feet below the surface.)

Here’s the current Oil Spill Insights from a Retired Manager of an Offshore Underwater Service Company Deep Horizon Oil Blowout Information Thread with his analysis.

Unlike most blogs and news sites, the comments are definitely worth reading, and contain large amounts of real information, often from other oil field professionals, ie, not flakes who just google and read these things, like me, for example.

However, the disturbing piece of news that comes near the end of the comments as I posted this is:

The Dome hit a snag!

Oil catcher dome hits snag near leak site: BP exec

Two days to trouble shoot.

…..
shelburn on May 8, 2010 – 3:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

from AP – “Icelike crystals encrusting a 100-ton steel-and-concrete box meant to contain oil gushing from a broken well deep in the Gulf of Mexico forced crews Saturday to back off a long-shot plan to contain the leak. The buildup on the specially constructed containment box made it too buoyant and clogged it up”
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Not just China’s, of course.

Richard Heinberg is fast evolving into a fairly solid researcher, doing work that few others are really willing or able to do. Not very glamorous, not exciting, just solid.

So check out his latest piece on the future, and present, of Chinese coal consumption/production China’s Coal Bubble…and how it will deflate U.S. efforts to develop “clean coal” .

He’s getting to be a pretty good systems thinker in my opinion, though he’ll never win any awards for exciting writing, but that’s probably for the best, these subjects really require fairly unemotional treatment.

Here’s a few snippets:

It is true of course that China’s coal consumption is enormous and growing, and that coal is the basis of the Chinese economy, fueling over 80 percent of electricity generation. China’s coal output grew an astonishing 28.1 percent from first quarter 2009 to first quarter 2010, to over 750 million metric tons consumed in just the past three months. But this is a situation that is patently unsustainable—not just because of the carbon emissions it entails, but because China simply doesn’t have enough coal to continue growing its consumption much longer.
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If you want to understand what the best level of knowledge and understanding of this event is as of today, read the The Oil Drum – Tech Talk: Revisiting Oil Well Pressures and Blowout Preventers after BP’s Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill.

Yes, I know it’s a mouthful. But it’s got all the information you need to actually understand what’s happening.

In the comment threads, pay especial attention to what ROCKMAN talks about, he is beyond good in this discussion, he’s an oil field engineer, works with drilling pressure I believe, and he knows this stuff inside and out. Heading Out, the author of the initial piece, is also excellent, as are several other contributors to that thread, toolman, a few others.

This discussion is frank and honest and a blessed relief when you compare it to the deluge of pseudo-knowledge the mainstream media subjects us to in such events.

There’s more background on BP as well coming out, for example that they got the Bush group to pull back on the requirements for the very component that failed in this case. As well as their relatively poor safety record, and other issues. But the interesting part in the comment thread is the information these guys are sharing.

In an earlier thread, in the drumbeat part of the oil drum, a few days before, by the way, ROCKMAN revealed that he’d been offered a job in one of the relief well drilling ships, because I guess he’s one of the best guys around at his area of expertise, but he’d sworn off offshore work for his family’s sake some years ago, but he was tempted, due to the catastrophic nature of this disaster.

Educate yourselves though, this is a good resource.