Author Archive

Rethinking Easter Island’s ecological catastrophe

Sunday, April 11th, 2010

Worth checking this paper out: Rethinking Easter Island’s ecological catastrophe (pdf – 2 column, sorry).

While the entire collapse discussion tends to occupy a dismally low intellectual plane, it’s useful to track some of the main points and samples just to keep up on the latest best understanding.

At some point I’ll post a review of Joseph Tainter’s The Collapse of Complex Societies, which is frequently cited as a key work, but which I’m finding to be a somewhat depressing display of typically second, possibly third, rate pseudo-intellectualism. Oh, whoops, did I give away the core of the coming review? never mind, then.

Personally I found Jared Diamond’s book Collapse to be pretty decent, not perfect, but far better than Tainter’s tainted work. Some people seem to believe that making errors when you are basing your work off of best available information is somehow proof the work is bad, but that’s not the case, the work is bad when it starts with bad premises, bad logic, and bad methods, ala Tainter…

World Population By Country

Wednesday, April 7th, 2010

Google has a nice tool I just discovered, global population totals, the graphs run from 1960 to 2010, and you can select different countries, and compare them.

I was curious about just how much various countries had grown, now I know, and it’s quite intuitively designed and constructed as a tool.

For more precise information you can always use the CIA World Factbook site, which gives you easy access to CIA public information on each country listed. I always feel odd using this resource, the concept of ‘open’ and ‘CIA’ do not fit well together in my brain, but it’s still a very decently done resource.

Quick look at financials

Wednesday, March 10th, 2010

I haven’t been tracking the financial stuff too much lately because… well honestly because it’s getting boring, we’re in the waiting period now before the next major bubble disruption occurs, which will be government debt/currency inflation.

But I’ve found some good articles lately anyway.

The financial system is fundamentally unsound because it depends critically on large connected financial institutions who have scaled up in a way that magnifies any localized financial problem into a systemic problem.
Edward Harrison, Why I’m Now Less Optimistic About Credit Crisis (SeekingAlpha.com)

This is a good read, well linked to other sources, one of the more interesting ones being The recession is over but the depression has just begun. I’d say that’s fairly self-explanatory. I liked this guy enough to add him to my links just on the basis of those two articles.

Then moving over to the old standby, PrudentBear.com, there was a slightly odd article, basically about how capitalism has to be controlled, regulated, and in some sectors, largely dismantled (finance for example). Weird stuff.
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Orlov on Collapse – Thoughts

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

Orlov wrote a nice article, The Five Stages of Collapse about what he sees as the general tendency of collapsing societies, based on what he saw when the USSR failed. Orlov is delightfully witty in a dark sort of way.

I think he may be making a slight mistake though in thinking that the US collapse is going to look like the USSR collapse, which is what he wrote about mainly, the countries are very different in terms of the cultures, politics, social systems.

But what is not different is the fundamental requirement of our system for raw materials and resources, and the serious lunacy of believing in debt fueled and funded ‘growth’, which was supposed to replace growth based on resource exploitation, ie, manufacturing . Sadly trying to restore debt fueled growth is the method Obama is trying to keep floating, like the Bush group before him (oh, if the banks would just lend again everything would be ok…).

When growth stops in a system based on Capital and debt, ie, a system requiring growth to survive, that system will not have a neat elegant wind-down, that much you can be absolutely certain about. But I think one major difference is found in the respective histories of the US and Russia.

Russia has always been fond of oligarchs, with basically unlimited power, whether czars, Putin, Stalin, or Lenin.

The US has at least some checks and balances, and people have a certain expectation that they won’t get totally screwed by the system. Not to idealize our political process in any way, but we do have a system that, although damaged severely by corporatism, can be altered, and we have political documents, which if we follow them, are actually all the tools we need. But the people need to be really pissed off before this happens, and ready to support a party that is willing to cut off corporatism and its perks.

Jeff Rubin The Business of Climate Change

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

Check out this nice overview, I think pretty accurate except for Jeff Rubin’s constant reasoning failure: ie, oil rises > 150, economies collapse, so I’m not sure where he gets the idea that the world will ever pay super high prices for oil, like > $200, that doesn’t follow at all from his analysis, unless you are promoting a long oil position I guess.

Lots of points here I’d guess most rabid denialists simply have never thought about, like bringing jobs back home, and so on.