No doubt any longer the peak is here

Posted: November 11th, 2009 by: h-2

With the required denials, a leak from the International Energy Administration (IEA) confirms that not only is that agency fully aware of peak oil, it is being pressured by the USA to deny it is here to avoid full spread panic.

Among some of the more choice quotes:

“The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year,” said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry. “The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today’s number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.

“Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources,” he added.

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was “imperative not to anger the Americans” but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. “We have [already] entered the ‘peak oil’ zone. I think that the situation is really bad,” he added.

And there you have it.

And unless you believe the denials, Kjell Aleklett from ASPO actually talked to at least one person in the IEA who told him the same thing, in 2007

At that opportunity, in November 2007, I had a number of private conversations with officers of the IEA. The revelations now reported in the Guardian were revealed to me then under the promise that I not name the source. I had earlier heard the same thing from another officer from Norway who, at the time he spoke of the pressure being applied by the USA, was working for the IEA.

Of course they’ll keep denying it as long as they can, blaming all the problems around us on something else, since to blame the actual, unfixable, cause, is not good politics, and might begin to make China question just how much longer it wants to keep the USA’s credit bubble inflated.

Things are getting closer.

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